While we were engaged with 9/11 and football season, something very big may have happened on the other side of the world.
On September 6, something happened. No one who can say so is quite sure what, and those who are sure what will not say so.
What we do know for sure is the Israeli Air Force launched an air attack on a site near Dayr az Zawr on the upper Euphrates in Syria, 50 miles from the Iraqi border. The attack, dubbed "Operation Orchard" apparently involved 2 to 7 aircraft, with one account listing two F15Is, four F-16s and an "electronic intelligence" aircraft, perhaps like an EA6B Prowler. The attack also involved Israeli commandos.
What they attacked is very much open to speculation. The "unofficial official" position appears to be that they attacked and destroyed a cache of Iranian weapons destined for Hezboallah. That's their story and they're sticking to it, but no one believes it, under what we lawyers call the totality of the circumstances:
1. The Israeli government is being very mum on the operation. Bret Stephens of the Wall Street Journal notes that if this was indeed an arms shipment to Hezboallah, there would be significant propaganda value to the Israeli government. In fact, after a 2002 incident in which Israeli marines seized an Iranian weapons shipment bound for Gaza, they immediately exploited its propaganda value. Yet here there is nothing.
2. Shortly after the raid, Israeli media (who operate under a type of military censorship regarding national security affairs -- would that we had that here) ran a front-page op-ed by John Bolton detailing the connection between Iran, Syria and North Korea on ballistic missile programs and commenting on the possibility of their collaboration on nuclear programs.
3. For their part, the Syrian are only admitting to an Israeli incursion into their airspace. Their air defenses were apparently completely and embarrassingly ineffective.
4. The attack came three days after the arrival in the Syrian port of Tartus of the freighter al-Hamed under mysterious circumstances. The al-Hamed is a North Korean vessel, yet it was flagged as South Korean for its (infrequent) visits to Syria. It was allegedly delivering a cargo of cement to Syria (leading to the question of who the hell ships cement overseas?), but was believed to be carrying nuclear materials. The ship's ownership is unclear at best. To boot, after offloading its cargo in Tartus and leaving, the al-Hamed disappeared.
5. The North Koreans denounced the "incursion" into Syrian airspace. Why would they do that?
6. The North Koreans are at a critical stage in their talks concerning their nuclear program. There has been speculation that they have been moving parts of their program overseas for safekeeping so North Korea can pass UN muster on its nuclear program to get economic sanctions lifted.
7. On August 14, Rim Kyong Man, the North Korean foreign trade minister, was in Syria to sign a protocol on “cooperation in trade and science and technology”. No details were released.
8. Syria possesses between 60 and 120 Scud-C missiles, which it has bought from North Korea over the past 15 years. Diplomats believe North Korean engineers have been working on extending their 300-mile range. It means they can be used in the deserts of northeastern Syria, the area of the Israeli strike.
9. The Israelis had apparently been watching the Dayr az Zawr complex, a purported agricultural research center for some time on the suspicion that it was being used to extract uranium from phosphates (which by itself is not suspicious), but recently they trained their spy satellites on the complex specifically, moving them from their normal monitoring area over Iran.
10. Israeli special forces were on this mission. Allegedly, they were there to paint the target for Israeli munitions, but Israel has GPS-guided munitions. Syria could counter GPS systems, but the electronic warfare aircraft could have been used to counter the Syrians' countermeasures. Inserting any troops so far into Syria undetected, particularly in the numbers some blogs are mentioning, would represent a considerable logistical achievement but also a grave risk, with something of a significant footprint. The presence of the Israeli commandos suggests there was more to this mission.
11. After the attack, an Israeli official had this quote:
“This was supposed to be a devastating Syrian surprise for Israel,” said an Israeli source. “We’ve known for a long time that Syria has deadly chemical warheads on its Scuds, but Israel can’t live with a nuclear warhead.”The balance of the evidence under the totality of the circumstances suggests the Israelis destroyed or captured something connected to a nuclear program on September 6. The al-Hamed was believed to be carrying nuclear materials from North Korea, and its disappearance -- either an attempted coverup or in the best case scenario captured by the Israelis -- suggests sinister motives for its trip. The Israeli attack took place just afterwards. North Korea is ripping Israel for an incursion into Syria, not normally thought of in North Korea's sphere of interest. Israeli devoted a lot of time and effort into this operation, yet will admit nothing. The presence of the special forces suggests either a cleaning up operation, or perhaps an effort at capturing some of the materials for evaluation.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, there is potential Iranian involvement as well. US officials believe the materials were headed to Iran. And if you don't believe Iran and Syria can cooperate on such things, check out this Jerusalem Post story (via Instapundit) titled "Dozens died in Syrian-Iranian chemical weapons experiment."
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