Friday, August 31, 2007

It seems so simple

but the eco-nazis don't get it. Either than, or they want us all to be poor and miserable, which I wouldn't put past 'em. But David Freddoso gets it:

I've noticed a lot of Democratic politicians speaking favorably about "energy independence," then acting to thwart it. When you talk sense about this, you get the response, "Oh, that's all you ever say, just drill more oil."

Well, yeah. We need more oil. People put gasoline in their tanks, not biomass or wind power or "clean coal" any other imaginary source of energy that you feel like subsidizing. For now, Democrats should either stop paying their bogus lip service to "energy independence," or else support more drilling in Alaska, off shore, in the Great Lakes, and everywhere else we can find oil or natural gas.

Oil imports are what make us "energy dependent," and it's not like we're going to stop using oil any time in the next 20 years. So either we get it from here or we get it from the Saudis, it's that simple.
Duh!

Why we don't care

about the murder rate:

A spike in murders in many cities is claiming a startling number of victims with criminal records, police say, suggesting that drug and gang wars are behind the escalating violence.

Police increasingly explore criminal pasts of homicide victims as well as suspects as they search for sources of the violence, which has risen the past two years after a decade of decline, according to the FBI's annual measures of U.S. crime.

[...]

In Baltimore, about 91% of murder victims this year had criminal records, up from 74% a decade ago, police reported.

In many cases, says Frederick Bealefeld III, Baltimore's interim police commissioner, victims' rap sheets provide critical links to potential suspects in botched drug deals or violent territorial disputes.

Philadelphia police Capt. Ben Naish says the Baltimore numbers are "shocking." Philadelphia also has seen the number of victims with criminal pasts inch up — to 75% this year from 71% in 2005.

In Milwaukee, local leaders created the homicide commission after a spike in violence led to a 39% increase in murders in 2005. The group compiled statistics on victims' criminal histories for the first time and found that 77% of homicide victims in the past two years had an average of nearly 12 arrests.

While it was common in the past for murder victims to have criminal records, the current levels are surprising even to analysts who study homicides.

"Anecdotally, the detectives on the street knew" victims with prior police contact were being killed, "but we wanted people to start to look at this" in the community, O'Brien says.

In Newark, where three young friends with no apparent links to crime were executed Aug. 4, roughly 85% of victims killed in the first six months of this year had criminal records, on par with the percentage in 2005 but up from 81% last year, police statistics show.

David Kennedy, a professor at New York's John Jay College of Criminal Justice, says the rise in criminals killing criminals has escaped policymakers' attention.

"The notion that these (murders) are random bolts of lightning, which is the commonly held image, is not the reality," says Kennedy, who has examined the backgrounds of murder suspects and victims in multiple U.S. cities. "It happens, but it doesn't happen often."

The slaying of truly innocent victims is so unusual in Baltimore that the chief prosecutor says the city has become dangerously numb to the carnage. "If we don't put human faces on the victims, we will become desensitized," State Attorney Patricia Jessamy says.
We already are desensitized, and we should be, at least to murders of thugs. These are people who out themselves in the position to be murdered by dealing with other thugs. You pays your money, you takes your chances.

This is why when policymakers talk about the murder rate as the big factor driving fear of crime, it's nonsense. The statistical likelihood of your being murdered if you are not engaged in prior criminal behavior is statistically insignificant.

Much more likely is the fear of being burglarized or robbed, or having your car stolen. THAT is what people fear most. Yet that fact is ignored by policymakers.

(h/t: The Corner)

Thursday, August 30, 2007

About the best I can say for her is, she didn't hire Ward Churchill

Lo and behold, after "retiring" this past summer as President of THE Ohio State University, Karen Holbrook decided to apply for some other university chief executive slots. I do hope she wasn't planning on using tOSU as a reference:

Former Ohio State University President Karen Holbrook reportedly told trustees at a Florida university that some who lived in OSU's campus area had "a culture of rioting" and were looking for any excuse to have "drunken orgies."

The Naples (Fla.) Daily News reported the comments came during Holbrook's recent interview for the president's job at Florida Gulf Coast University. Holbrook later dropped out of the job search.

"I went to Ohio State and had no idea there was a culture of rioting," Holbrook told the trustees. "Any good excuse gets some of the people on the street and they think it's fun to flip cars and have absolute drunken orgies."

During Holbrook's first year as OSU president in 2002, a campus-area riot after the Buckeyes' football victory over Michigan brought national attention to the university. The alcohol-fueled melee, in which cars were overturned and set on fire, resulted in more than 50 arrests.

Holbrook, 64, retired June 30 after five years as Ohio State's president.
I think this report basically confirms the suspicion we Ohio State alumni had that her retirement wasn't exactly voluntary.

And, based on my conversations with fellow alumni and reading a few message boards after her retirement, I think I can speak for the large majority of tOSU alumni when I say that Karen Holbrook is quite possibly the sorriest excuse for a university president ever to walk the earth.

The Roman Emperor Septimius Severus once told his heir the only way to keep power was to enrich the troops and despise all others. Holbrook appeared to follow that philosophy at Ohio State. She appeared to have good relations with the faculty, but she was hated by everybody else, especially the alumni. Her relationship with them was so bad that it makes the current deal at Dartmouth look healthy.

Two big areas of criticism:

1. Money. Holbrook was all about money. Period. She would sell the university's soul for cash -- and very nearly did. She agreed to sell sponsorship rights to the Ohio State-Michigan game, and it was only by quick action by the administration at U of M -- to its everlasting credit -- that blocked the effort. Sponsorships and ads on campus are multiplying. In large part thanks to Holbrook, if you want to continue to feel a serious connection to the campus, you have to be a major donor. Alumni are squeezed every way imaginable. Faithful alumni are being forced to park further and further away and get worse and worse seats at football games, unless they give a very large donation. Tailgating for football games has been spiked -- so big donors can park closer to the stadium. (The furor this brought is probably the real cause of her anger over "drunken orgies," not the 2002 riot). The inattentiveness of the big monied club seat holders at Ohio Stadium led the marching band to perform its halftime shows toward the opposite side of the field. Buildings, bricks, elevators, rooms, cubicles -- all up for sponsorship. For sale. Let's not get started on the new fees for students.

2. Holbrook also fit the classic stereotype of the ivory tower academic. Politically, Ohio State has always been a moderate campus. At least its students have. Bridging whatever gap existed with the faculty may have come with a very steep price, as speech codes at Ohio State tightened very noticeably under her tenure. From what I've been told, she treated the students -- at least the undergrads -- as an annoyance, and rarely interacted with them. The emphasis on undergrad education under former president Gordon Gee was reversed under Holbrook. And let's not forget her issue with the tickets to the 2002 national Championship Game -- horning in for several thousand scarce tickets for her personal use, so she could SELL them.
Outside of her own academic circle, she was out of touch with the Ohio State student and alumni community. In particular, she treated the alumni as an annoyance at best and unwanted at worst. "How firm thy friendship O-HI-O" was severely tested under Holbrook.

We heard rumors that alumni donations were down significantly, not from the big donors, but from people like me. That is a dangerous sign that the emotional bond we have with Ohio State was fraying. Holbrook's tenure is the proximate cause.

The July re-hiring of Gee as the new president is another sign that Holbrook was forced out and that the university wanted to repair its bond with alumni. Gee, the president when I was at Ohio State, was immensely popular with both among students and alumni (except for refusing to fire the incompetent John Cooper as football coach and that whole 1992 "victory" against Michigan that sure looked like a tie on the scoreboard.) He tightened academic standards while keeping the emphasis on undergraduate education, a necessity for the state's flagship university. Gee was frequently seen walking the campus and actually (gasp!) talking to students about their concerns. And he kept PC crap to a minimum. All of this was an anathema to Holbrook.

Holbrook came to Ohio State knowing nothing about it, and she was too arrogant to learn. Or even care. She was out for herself.

To be told we're only interested in "absolute drunken orgies" by a pompous ass with delusions of adequacy can only be a compliment.

(h/t: Phi Beta Cons)

A Public Service Announcement

from the Socially Progressive Fascist Imperialists.

Due to Indiana's idiotically early start date for the school year, school has started. Children are now out waiting for their buses every morning and getting off their buses every afternoon.

We are here to remind you to be watchful of the children. Be careful. Slow down.

Unless ...

Those "children" happen to be obnoxious thug teenagers walking down the middle of the street or just hanging out therein. In those cases, you are encouraged to run them over, as many times as necessary, until they either learn the error of their ways or are permanently removed from the gene pool, whichever comes first.

After that, you may bill their dumbass excuses for parents for any damage done to your car because they were so irresponsible as to foist their degenerate offspring onto society.

This has been a commercial message from the Socially Progressive Fascist Imperialists, who remind you that we care about all Americans.

Except the stupid ones.

It's nice to know

someone agrees with me.

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

A lesson on economics

from a writer the Nation. Scary? Not as scary as the Republicans who can't grasp the simple concept he articulates.

(h/t: The Corner)

Norman, Norman Hsu

where are you?

How many US secrets did the Clintons promise to get contributions from this guy?

What is going on

at the University of Toledo?

Offensive

I'm watching a TiVo'd episode of CSI: NY. They are investigating a murder in a parking garage outside Yankee Stadium. All well and good, until you notice their set up shot of Yankee Stadium looks suspiciously like Dodger Stadium.

Then, they enter the stadium to process the victim's seats, at which point Yankee Stadium looks suspiciously like the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Now, don't get me wrong. I LOVE Los Angeles. Absolutely love it, and I may actually move there, but I also love New York and I also love sports. Don't insult me by trying to substitue something else for Yankee Stadium. Or something else for any stadium (Yes, I'm talking to you, producers of Major League, for trying to pass off Milwaukee County Stadium and, most offensive of all, Camden Yards as Cleveland Municipal and Jacobs Field, respectively). It doesn't take much to get the proper footage, or to find a day when the Yankees aren't playing to get into Yankee Stadium.

It really ruined the whole episode for me, which is hard to do with Melina Kanakaredes being her normal beautiful, classy self.

More thoughts on Norwegian population growth (or, "Pro, could you possibly come up with a more obscure subject for a blog post?")

A while back I did a post on global warming (or lack of same) based on what I read in Frank McLynn's book 1066, which notes that Norway had a much milder climate in the Middle Ages than it does now. Norway had a population of around 2 million in 1000. A thousand years later its population is only 4.6 million. This suggests to me that Norway was much milder back then than it is now, which explains in part the relatively slow population growth.

But there are other potential, perhaps darker, explanations. I am reminded of the legend of the utburd.

In Scandinavian folklore, the utburd (or myling) is the ghost of a murdered child. The victim not of abortion, but of infanticide. Here is one description of an utburd:

An utburd, from the old Norse word for "child carried outside" is an vengeful child ghost. It may have been born sickly into a family that already had too many mouths to feed, and left to freeze in a shallow grave, alone there to stiffen and die in the stinging cold. Death would soon release the child's spirit from it's little body. Later that same day, the parents would then cover the grave.

The parents would have had no remorse. In the harsh lands of the North, it was common practice to expose infants in times of want, or when the mother was unwed or when the child was sickly or malformed. Justified though the act seemed to the adults who preformed it, the ghosts that sprang from the tiny corpses burned for revenge. And, as if in compensation for the infants helplessness during their few days of life, Utburds were formidable ghosts, gathering strength in the years after their deaths until they could make their vengeance complete.

Ordinarily, an Utburd was invisible, although it's doeful cries often rang out across the stony wastes near the little grave it rose from. But a sharp-eyed traveler who heard the cries might glimpse a snowy-plumed owl, skimming low over the distant tundra, or a black dog, waist-high and shaggy, silhouetted on a far ridgetop. Or beneath a nearby shrub, he might even discern for a moment the phantom of the murdered infant itself, it's tiny fists clenched in pain or rage. People said that, in any of it's guises, an Utburd could swell to the height of a cowshed. When it returned to it's birthplace to seek out it's mother, however, it dwindled to a curl of smoke, able to slip into a dwelling and take shape again with all it's hideous strength intact, ready to savor revenge.

But an Utburd's rage endured long after it's mother was in her grave, and it continued to claim victims-usually solitary way-farers. An encounter with an Utburd was intimate and terrifying. Thunderous foot-falls, resounding like boulders dropped from a great height, signaled the approach of the ghost. Most travelers knew better than to look back, for a glimpse of the pursuing Utburd-if it was visible-could paralyze a mortal. When the traveler broke into a run, the massive footsteps, merging into an unbroken roar, kept pace easily. And when the victim tired, the Utburd's cold clasp would tighten about his chest, dragging him to the ground with an irresistible weight.

Water and iron, substances inimical to ghosts, could save a mortal pursued by an Utburd. If the traveler splashed into a stream or unsheathed a pocket knife in time, he would find himself alone and unscathed in the silent wilderness. More often, though, another wayfarer would happen upon the body days or weeks later, it's bones crushed and it's flesh shredded by supernatural strength and fury.
This description, as I recall, comes from the Ghosts volume to the Time-Life series on The Enchanted World. I read it. It was a great collection of legends, myths and folklore for the beginner.

But they use an example of an utburd attack, one that may or may not come from legend, but appears to be based on it. "Fake but accurate," maybe.

One night, a wisp of smoke slithers through a keyhole to a one-room Scandinavian house, where a husband and wife are sleeping. Or were. The wife notices the smoke and sees it pool in a darkened corner of the room. What emerges from the shadows is her baby, whom they had left exposed months earlier. The infant crawls across the room toward its erstwhile mother. She lets out a small cry, awakening her husband, who stares at the advancing child in shock.

The ghost baby crawls onto the mother as she continues to lay there, perhaps paralyzed with shock and fear. It crawls onto her chest, putting immense weight on her ribs. She cries again, and the father tries to remove the baby, but, the book says, "his hands close on a form as cold and inexorable as glacial ice."

I'll try to paraphrase from memory what happened next.

The child reached the woman's face. Its hands churned in her eye sockets for a few seconds, then it simply vanished. The mother let out a horrific scream, and blood welled where her eyes had been. She was blind.

Not a pleasant story, or one you'd want to tell your kids at bedtime (unless that kid was me), but perhaps an informative one. Yes, it's mythology and folklore. But you discount folklore at your peril, for it often contains a significant measure of truth.

The parallels to the Oedipos legend are pretty obvious. An attempted infanticide that comes back to haunt the mother (though there certainly is no suggestion of sexual relations between the child and the mother, not even of the Larry Craig variety), the removal of the eyes (though this time it was of the mother, not the child).

So what does it mean?

First and foremost, it means infanticide was practiced in Scandinavia, just as it had been in, for example, ancient Greece, most famously in the Oedipos legend and in Sparta.

It also means someone didn't like infanticide. Who? Assuming for the sake of argument there was no such thing as a real utburd, there are a number of possibilities. Neighbors, acquaintances and others who may not have liked the procedure and carried out their own revenge. Or, more likely if the Oedipos legend is any indication, the mothers became guilt-ridden and disfigured themselves as punishment or atonement, just as Oedipos had done.

But it certainly gives another possible explanation for Norway's anemic population growth.

It also may explain the resistance of Europe to abortion restrictions. If practices like this were OK for hundreds of years, they are not going to think of abortion as any worse, and would actually think of it as an improvement, at least morally. Plus, if you had done something for a long time and someone told you you couldn't do it anymore, for reasons that may seem rather ephemeral, how would you react?

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Latest addition to my book rotation

Empires in the Balance: Japanese and Allied Pacific Strategies to April 1942, by H. P. Willmott. Once again, out-of-print and difficult to find, so it's not on Amazon. This one covers the Battle of the Java Sea, though. Always an interesting battle to read about.

Assessing Adrianople

I just finished The Day of the Barbarians: The Battle That Led to the Fall of the Roman Empire, by Alessandro Barbero. I was slightly disappointed in it, not so much because of anything Barbero did wrong, but that there wasn’t much tactical analysis of the Battle of Adrianople (Hadrianopolis). That is not totally unexpected, however – very little has been written overall about the Battle of Adrianople. Barbero was trying to tell a story that few have even bothered to tell, let alone analyze. I’m still trying to get my own collection of accounts of this disastrous Roman defeat in 378 updated.

Adrianople is typically viewed as a seminal event – the end of the Roman Empire, the end of antiquity and the end of infantry as the dominant land fighting force, replaced by cavalry. Arguments can be made in favor of each, and, indeed, I believe that Adrianople is as good a place as any to draw the always arbitrary line to end the epoch of antiquity.

But the other two interpretations have significant holes. The Western Roman Empire continued for another century until the Emperor Romulus Augustus (Romulus Augustulus) was deposed by Odovacer in 476, though one could argue its back was broken. Furthermore, the Eastern Roman Empire continued for another thousand years, though it would become known to modern historians as the Byzantine Empire. The irony of Adrianople was that even though under this interpretation it was an event that ended the Western Roman Empire, it was the Eastern Romans who were defeated at Adrianople, yet they lived for another thousand years.

Much more problematic is the traditional interpretation that this was the end of the infantry era and the beginning of the cavalry era. In my opinion, while Adrianople was indeed a victory of cavalry, and cavalry became more prominent in medieval writings, it seems to me that the record simply does not support this interpretation. Adrianople was in many respects simply a Roman event. Nothing more, nothing less. But my interpretation requires digging back even further into history.

Before Rome, the dominant method of fighting was the phalanx. Anyone who has seen the movie 300 has a good idea of what a phalanx is, for the Greeks (particularly the Spartans) perfected this tactic, though it actually started much sooner in ancient Sumeria.

The Greeks staffed the phalanx with their famous hoplites, who were armed with a spear (usually 6-9 feet long), shield (usually circular), short sword, bronze or iron curiass, helmet with horsehair plume (or "scrubbing brushes" as I’ve always called them). The weapons these warriors had was important.

In a phalanx, you would take a formation of troops and line them up, usually 8-deep or so, but with usually as long a line as you could. The troops would then lock their shields together; that is, each hoplite would hold his shields with his left arm, covering his left side and the right side of his neighbor. There would be little, if any, space between the shields. Each solder would hold the spear in his right hand, parallel to the ground. There is considerable debate as to how the spear was held, overhand or underhand, but it would usually be held above the shield, though it could be held below if necessary. The hoplites in the front line would hunch behind their shields, leaving as little of themselves exposed as possible – remember 300.

The interlocking shields were the key to battle. If they were broken, the breach had to be filled quickly or the battle could be lost.

In battle (unless holding a good defensive position like the Spartans did in 300), the troops would lower their spears, so the front of the formation would be bristling with spearpoints, and advance in formation toward the enemy. The speed at which they would advance (fast march or slow run – remember these guys were wearing heavy armor) would depend on the situation and, more importantly, their training. Remember, each soldier depended on his neighbor to cover his right side. The guy on the far right was kinda screwed because he had no one to cover his right. So there was a tendency for that guy in particular to drift to his right so he would not be outflanked on his exposed right side. The man to his left would follow him, to keep the protection of his neighbor’s shield. This pattern would repeat down the line. Training and discipline were important to keep the phalanx going in the proper direction.

So the phalanx would advance until it met the enemy, which could be another phalanx. They would meet head on – literally. Like in 300, there could be a large crashing sound and a lot of shouting and shoving as each side tried to force the other back. The important objective for the front ranks, again, would be to hold the interlocking shield wall. Their compatriots behind them would push the lines in front and direct their spears at the enemy in front of the shield wall.

This phase of battle would usually produce few casualties, but there would always be one. At least one. Someone on the front shield wall would either get hurt or killed, or would panic. Either way, his position on the shield wall would open up.

With his position open, his nearby compatriots on the front line would be exposed. His position would have to be filled on the line. If not, the casualties from that hole in the shield wall would mount, the hole would widen and the army would panic and start feeling. That is the point at which the casualties would really start to mount – fleeing troops with no protection from the advancing victorious phalanx. The casualties would generally be somewhat limited because Greek hoplites could not pursue a great distance due to their heavy armor, but it was at that point in the battle when the bulk of the casualties would be incurred by the losing side.

The Greeks perfected the phalanx, largely trough training and armor. The armor – not represented in 300, obviously –- was a critical advantage over the Persians, who really were armed with things like wicker shields and linen cuirasses. This is one reason why the Athenians won at Marathon and why the pitifully few Spartans were able to hold out for so long at Thermopylae.

It was a good and useful tactic, for as long as went, but it had some problems, the biggest being its inflexibility and vulnerability. The front of the phalanx was tough from the front because of the interlocking shield wall, but it was vulnerable from the sides and back where they had no shields. The shield wall would lose effectiveness if the spears were not lowered to help protect it – but once the spears were lowered, it became very difficult to change the phalanx’s direction. Everyone had their spears lowered and pointed. To get all of these thousands of troops to raise their spears to change direction in a time of battle to deal with a new threat was next to impossible – only the Spartans (naturally) came up with a technique for doing so called the countermarch, where the phalanx would reverse direction in place – the front of the phalanx would become the back and vice versa. But even this had very limited utility. Usually, when a phalanx was outflanked, they could only continue advancing and hope someone else (maybe the Olympian gods) would take care of the new threat, or they would have to drop their spears and flee.

Various techniques were tried for handling this situation. The most common was the use of cavalry to cover the flanks. Cavalry is what made Philip of Macedon and his son Alexander the Great so effective, but for them cavalry was a necessity – their Macedonian phalanx carried spears called sarissas which could be in excess of 20 feet long (whatever other issues the movie Alexander had, it represented the Macedonian phalanx very accurately). Another tactic was to have a second phalanx operate behind the first. This second phalanx would hold back as the first attacked to see if possible outflanking threats presented themselves.

In spite of these drawbacks, the phalanx, especially the Greek phalanx, was very successful – until the Romans came along.

The Romans had to deal with the phalanx as they fought their innumerable wars in Italy with their neighbors. They saw that the phalanx depended on the shield wall, that holes in the shield wall would destroy the phalanx. They sought to create that hole early on. Enter the pilum.

The pilum was a type of javelin that was the primary weapon of the Roman legionary. It came in two types – a light one and a heavy one. The heavy one could double as a spear, and did so at times, for example, at the Battle of Pharsalus.

Roman legionaries were not armed a whole lot differently than their hoplite counterparts, but what was different was significant. Their shields (the scutum) was not circular, but long and rounded, designed to protect more of the body. Their helmets allowed them to see and hear, and also protected the neck. Plus, they had the pilum.

When faced with a phalanx (or really any infantry), the Romans would throw their pila at the enemy troops. The intent was to either strike and incapacitate enemy infantry, or to strip them of their shields. For when the enemy saw these incoming javelins, they would instinctively raise their shields, which would disrupt the formation by itself. But if the pilum stuck a shield, the additional weight would make the shield unwieldy and force the hoplite to either try to remove the pilum or to discard his shield. With the formation disrupted and the shield wall pierced, the Romans would advance, still carrying their own shields, and hack at their unprotected foes with their own swords (the gladius).

It worked pretty well, but it too had drawbacks. It was at its best fighting with other infantry. The great Roman defeats evidence a certain pattern:

Cannae (216 BC) – Roman troops make a frontal assault on Spanish and Celtic troops under the command of the Carthaginian general Hannibal Barca. The Romans drive the Carthaginian back, past the Libyan troops Hannibal deployed on the flanks of his infantry. They turn and attack the Romans on their flanks. Meanwhile, Hannibal’s cavalry, deployed outside his Libyan infantry, had driven off their Roman opposites and appear in the rear of the Roman infantry. The Romans are encircled and eight legions are wiped out.

Carrhae (53 BC) – The Roman triumvir Marcus Licinius Crassus Dives decides to invade Parthia in his own private war to show himself the martial equal of Julius Caesar and Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus (Pompey the Great). Crassus marches into what is now Iraq with seven legions and 4,000 cavalry. Crassus wanted war, and when he found the Parthians, he got one. Crassus deployed his troops into an open square, which the Parthians proceeded to surround with medieval-style armored knights and cavalry archers. The cavalry archers poured a shower of arrows – extremely well designed arrows shot from compound bows that could pierce armor and shields – into the Roman square. The Romans were slaughtered.

Teutoburger Wald (Teutoburg Forest, 9 AD) – A staff member named Arminius plots a route for three Roman legions to take through the German forest. But Arminius is really the German Hermann, who is in contact with the German barbarian tribes. The route he picks leads the legions through narrow forest trails where they will be extremely vulnerable to ambush and where they would have no chance to deploy to defend themselves. (By “deployed,” I mean set up in a battle formation, as opposed to a traveling formation like the Romans were doing here, and expecting battle.) Again, the Romans are slaughtered.

Adrianople (Hadrianopolis, 378 AD) – Several large Gothic tribes, fleeing from the Huns, petition to be allowed to cross the Danube and enter the Empire. The Emperor Valens allows it, but seriously underestimates the number of refugees, which Barbero estimates at 100,000-200,000 people. The Romans are not prepared to house, clothe and feed the new arrivals, and what preparations they have made are nullified by corrupt local bureaucrats. The security arrangements are also inadequate, and far more Goths are able to cross than were intended, a good percentage of them without the knowledge of the Romans. The Goths are naturally not happy at the treatment they have received at Roman hands, and a failed attempt to assassinate their leaders at Marcianople – apparently without the knowledge of Valens – sparks a massive revolt. The Goths coalesce under the leadership of the chieftain Fritigern and ravage Thrace. Valens is forced to return from a campaign against Persia to deal with the crisis.

He leads an army of 15,000-20,00 legionaries (by modern estimates) out of Hadrianpolis to deal with Fritigern, who, again by modern estimates, may actually have been slightly outnumbered in terms of fighting men. Late in the afternoon of August 9, they arrive at Fritigern’s wagon laager, a large defensive formation where the Goths’ wagons are arranged in a circle, much like the Old West. Both Valens and Fritigern agree to negotiations; the historians do not agree whether this was legitimate or simply to buy time to rest their troops.

In any event, the cavalry and light troops on the Roman right begin skirmishing – basically harassing – the Gothic troops. But they get too close to the Goths, who chose to resist their tormentors, and battle starts almost accidentally. Some of the accounts claim that the Roman army was still attempting to deploy for battle, but Barbero does not share this view. In any event, the Gothic cavalry, which had been out foraging, returns – and sweep around the laager. The Roman cavalry on the right collapses. The Roman left flank cavalry holds out heroically, but eventually is defeated and flees. The Gothic infantry then sortie from the laager. The Roman infantry, with its flanks exposed and facing enemy infantry in the front, is surrounded and destroyed, both by rampaging Gothic cavalry and cavalry archers, and accompanying infantry. Valens is killed; legend has it he and his staff hid in a house which was then set afire by the Goths, who didn’t know he was inside. His body was never recovered.
From these four absolutely devastating defeats, a few patterns emerge.

1. Enemy cavalry was a decisive factor against the Romans.

2. Roman cavalry was comparatively ineffective.
The obvious exception here in this sense is Teutoburger Wald, which was not a proper battle by ancient standards but is more properly styled as a series of ambushes enabled by treason. Barbero even points out the ineffectiveness of the Romans against cavalry, and uses Cannae and Carrhae as examples.

The weakness of the Roman legions to cavalry, it seems, was due to the legionaries’ lack of a proper spear. Horses can be devastating charging infantry, unless those infantry are somehow protected by large, pointy things. Large, pointy things can have fatal effects on horses.

But the early Romans faced mostly infantry in their initial expansion phase in central Italy. In the Punic Wars, the Carthaginians seemed wedded to the primacy of the elephant, even though the Carthaginian unit the Romans most feared was their Numidian cavalry. Among the early legionaries, only the veteran third-line infantry (triarii) carried spears, while the first (hastati) and second (principes) carried the pilum.

After Marius’ reforms, in which the distinctions between the hastati, principes and triarii were abolished, all legionaries carried the pilum. The heavy version of the pilum could be used as a spear – and, again, was used as such by Julius Caesar’s so-called forth line against Pompey at Pharsalus – but was not really large enough to be consistently effective as a large, pointy thing.

Roman cavalry had its own issues. Cavalry was usually not a priority for a power such as early Rome, due in large part to its impracticality. Throughout history, possession of horses was more of a social status than anything else, because horses were (and are) expensive both to acquire and to maintain. Cavalry, for which horses have to be specially bred, trained, maintained and equipped, was much more so. It is much easier for a nomadic tribe living off the resources of others (say, the Huns or the Mongols) to maintain cavalry than it is for a civilized state to do so. A landlocked power like early Rome, which didn’t face a lot of cavalry, didn’t see much of a need for it. And the Romans never seemed to like the idea of cavalry much either, treating it as a necessary evil, much like a navy, rather than taking real pride in it.

Maybe that explains why the Romans were never really good at the cavalry thing. Notice that the major example of the pilum being effective as a spear was against Pompey’s Roman cavalry. In the big Roman victory involving cavalry, against Hannibal at Zama in 202 BC, much of the cavalry on the Roman side was not actually Roman, but was Numidian, under the command of the talented Numidian prince Masinissa, who had formerly fought on the Carthaginian side but had changed for political reasons.

Yet, with all their battle experience, you would think the Romans would have learned their lesson by 378 AD. And they did, perhaps too much so.

The Roman army that faced Fritigern at Adrianople was not the same as the legions of Caesar, just as the legions of Caesar had not been the same as those of Scipio. Roman infantry in 378 were basically divided into two types of units – the limitanei, whose job it was to guard the border and serve as a sort of trip wire; and the comitatenses, which served in the Empire’s mobile field armies. The limitanei was to slow down invaders until the comitatenses could come in and finish them off. This had the additional benefit of keeping Roman troops scattered, except for the mobile field armies under the Emperor’s direct control, which could inhibit the declaration of every General Maximus, Illiterate Thracian Giant (with apologies to Larry Gonick) as Imperator to challenge for the throne.

The Roman infantry was armed pretty much the same – as their predecessors in the Greek phalanx. The comitatenses had newer chain mail armor (cheaper and more comfortable) and retained something of the distinctive Roman helmet, but they had circular shields and spears, not the pilum of old. At least they could deal with cavalry now. Yet in some sense it could be argued this was a regression.

Their cavalry had improved, too, or so they thought. Their heavy cavalry was based on the Parthian model, and looked largely like medieval knights, no mean feat without stirrups. They also had the heavily armored cataphract horse archers.

Their training and discipline was up to the standards of any previous Roman army. They were the best equipped army in the world.

And yet it all fell apart at Adrianople. Why?

Historians have debated this question for almost two thousand years. A myriad of contributing factors could be cited, many of which have significant weaknesses:

1. Valens, unpopular at home as an Arian Christian, needed a military victory to shore up his popular support, and so chose not to wait for reinforcements from the Western Roman Emperor Gratian, yet Valens’ army on hand should have been enough to do the job;

2. The Romans had marched all day from Hadrianopolis, and by the start of the battle late in the afternoon they were tired, hungry and thirsty, yet their morale remained very high;

3. The Romans had underestimated the size and nature of the Gothic army, because the cavalry was away foraging, but they should have had an idea of the size of Fritigern’s army and the types of units they would be facing because of information gathered form their previous engagements with his forces;

4. The Roman troops were angry about the devastation the Goths had wrought across Thrace, which caused them to be overly aggressive in their skirmishing, yet skirmishing had always been a part of ancient warfare; and

5. The Gothic cavalry counterattacked before Valens’ army was fully deployed, yet Barbero refutes this argument.
As one might expect, it was probably a combination of all of these factors. Barbero’s apparent belief that the Romans were fully deployed at Adrianople is curious. Infantry armed with spears, even when surrounded by cavalry, can beat them off if properly deployed. Barbero states that the Romans were ineffective in resisting the Gothic cavalry because most of their spears were broken by that point in the battle, which suggests to me that the army was not yet fully deployed when they were engaged with the cavalry. But given the amount of time it took for negotiations to almost get under way, it’s also hard to believe that they were not yet fully deployed.

It’s hard to determine precisely what happened at Adrianople because, like Zama, the exact site of the battle has never been identified. Unlike Zama, there are not enough accounts of the battle to help fill in the gaps.

In any event, history has been correct in determining its effect on the Roman Empire, even in the rather ironic twist that this defeat of an eastern army led to the fall of the western empire. As Barbero relates it, Valens’ successor Throdosius ultimately ended up buying off the Goths and other barbarians and adding them to the imperial armies. But the barbarians, though normally loyal to Rome, were neither popular nor trusted in Constantinople, and the Eastern Roman government gradually sought to push them further away – that is, west. The Western Roman Empire became dependent on them for defense, but politics and a lack of money eroded the loyalty of the barbarians further. It should be noted that Alaric, the barbarian who sacked Rome, was actually a general who answered to Rome. Odovacer wasn’t much different.

But the traditional interpretation of Adrianople as the emergence of cavalry as the dominant weapon is at best a stretch and, I would argue, inaccurate. A plethora of factors made this particular event unique to the Romans, not the least of which was their historic inability to really get a grip on this cavalry thing. The rampages of the cavalry-based Huns and, later, the Mongols certainly adds credibility to the cavalry dominance argument. But their success was based mostly on sheer numbers of cavalry, not the nature of cavalry. Remember, it is much easier and cheaper to develop and maintain cavalry when you’re using someone else’s resources, as nomadic peoples tend to do.

Cavalry did not magically become more effective with Adrianople. They had always had their effectiveness, most exemplified by the Achaemenid Persians, the Macedonians of Philip and Alexander the Great and Hannibal’s (and Masinissa’s Numidian) cavalry. And after Adrianople, cavalry would suffer major defeats and serious bouts of ineffectiveness as they always had – Charles Martel’s troops, though surrounded by Muslim cavalry, were able to defeat them at Tours (Poitiers) in 732; the Norman cavalry of William the conqueror was actually ineffective against Saxon infantry at the Battle of Hastings in 1066; and heavily-armored French cavalry were completely unable to deal with a few English long bowmen at Agincourt in 1415 (then again, the French always had cavalry issues, if the Battle of Nicopolis in 1396 is any indication). They would continue to have their good points and bad points, but the cost of cavalry meant that infantry would remain the dominant land force.

So don’t make more of Adrianople than it was – a catastrophe that destroyed the mystique of the Roman army and sent the Roman Empire on its death spiral that resulted in the end of the western empire. It represented the end of antiquity.

But it was nothing more than that.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Star Wars can answer most questions

and NFL prognostication is no exception.

This pretty much works, too, as my favorite team has my favorite Star Wars character, and my least favorite team has my least favortie Star Wars character.

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Hang on

I'm working on what may be my most monstrous blog post yet.

People who should be shot

Whoever came up with the "Viva Viagra" ad campaign currently running during the Chargers-Cardinal game on the NFL Network. If we have to sit through this stuff during the NFL season, those ad wizards better hire some bodyguards, as I can imagine a lot of very angry NFL fans throwing things at their TVs. I've already seen some angry blog posts on this subject. This may be the most obnoxious ad campaign not involving Ray Lewis or John Mellencamp.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Three legal arguments

that every lawyer should use at least once in their lifetime:

1. "Everything that guy just said is bullshit... Thank you." -- the My Cousin Vinny Opening Statement.

2. "I'm just a caveman. Your world frightens and confuses me." -- the Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer Argument.

3. "Ladies and gentlemen, this is Chewbacca. Chewbacca is a Wookiee from the planet Kashyyyk. But Chewbacca lives on the planet Endor. Now think about it; that does not make sense! [...] Why would a Wookiee, an eight-foot tall Wookiee, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of two-foot tall Ewoks? That does not make sense! But more important, you have to ask yourself: What does this have to do with this case? Nothing. Ladies and gentlemen, it has nothing to do with this case! It does not make sense! Look at me. I'm a lawyer defending a major record company, and I'm talkin' about Chewbacca! Does that make sense? Ladies and gentlemen, I am not making any sense! None of this makes sense! And so you have to remember, when you're in that jury room deliberatin' and conjugatin' the Emancipation Proclamation, does it make sense? No! Ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, it does not make sense! If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit! The defense rests."
-- the Chewbacca Defense.

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Latest addition to my book rotation

The Barrier and the Javelin: Japanese and Allied Pacific Strategies, February to June 1942, by H. P. Willmott. I'd give you the Amazon link, but Amazon doesn't carry it -- the book is long out of print and difficult to find. But Willmott is a great writer and an even better military history analyst. It's worth the effort to find his books.

Just a question

Don't you find the phrase "throwing them to the wolves" and the Roman practice of throwing people to the lions a bit more understandable after this whole Michael Vick deal?

As an aside, a friend has informed me of the new Michael Vick Dog Chew Toy. Too bad dogs can't have the real thing.

I am a cat person myself -- I am the proud guardian of three Feline Americans, all of whom are smarter than the average John Murtha supporter -- but when I hear about what Vick did to those dogs I shudder. Some harm to animals is necessary for food and certain research, but not entertainment. Never entertainmment. Like murder, rape, child molestation, residential burglary, robbery, car theft, arson, embezzlement and securities fraud, cruelty to animals should be a capital crime.

That means, yes, I think Vick should face the death penalty.

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

So, what's your point?

There seems to have been a bit of a foreign policy kerfuffle involving Glenn Greenwald and Daniel Drezner, some of which was related by Rick Moran at Right Wing Nuthouse, about whether American foreign policy is "imperialist." (You can go through the posts yourself here, here, here, here and here.) These guys are going at it in a far more civil fashion than I probably would, and are to be lauded for doing so, but I would want to make one point for Mr. Greenwald.

At the end of his first piece, Greenwald states:

For those who actually understand what the term means, there is no reasonable ground for objecting to the term "imperial" to describe America's role in the world. Even our Foreign Policy Community elites have begun acknowledging that we are acting as an empire and are openly debating the best forms of imperial management. And the seemingly endless string of military interventions over the last several decades under a whole slew of "justifications" leaves no doubt that we see ourselves as world rulers who violate sovereignty and use military force at will, whenever -- as Drezner himself said -- we perceive that it promotes our interests to do so. That is what an empire does, by definition.
This betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of foreign policy and of government in general, a misunderstanding that I fear pervades the left in this country and elsewhere. Let me explain.

Under the social contract, a government exists for the protection of its people from the predations of others, both internal (via laws and police) and external (via armed forces). Really, that is its one responsibility. Everything else is gravy.

From a foreign policy perspective, a government should protect its people from harm, whether that harm is an invasion that turns millions of its citizens into refugees, a terrorist attack that destroys its property and creates a catastrophic level of fear among its citizens, or driving the cost of a gallon of gas to $7.00 a gallon, which could destroy its economy and starve its people. That is government's job.

Government has this theoretical duty under the social contract. Government has this duty under, in the case of the US, the Constitution and the various laws. People pay government to perform these functions, through taxes. This is what gives the government the resources to perform these functions, functions that people cannot perform on their own. So government has not only the theoretical responsibility and the legal responsibility, but the moral responsibility as well. No one else can protect the people but the government from foreign enemies.

What Greenwald describes as "imperialism" has been practiced by every government on earth from the beginning of time, whether it is a tribe, a city-state, a dynastic state or a nation-state. Every. Single. One. Because that was their job -- to protect their people. You can argue that it's selfish for them to do so, but that is their job -- to protect their people. Because no one else can or will do it.

What does this mean in practical applications? Let's use Iraq as an example. Saddam's developing WMD, cavorting with terrorists (including al Qaida) and threatening us in his speeches. What should the US government do? If the threat is large enough,a s I believe it was, take him out by invasion.

But Iraqi civilians will be killed? My response is, so what? That is not the responsibility of the US government, not legally, not morally. That is Saddam's responsibility. He put them in harm's way for his own benefit. He used civilians as shields and hid military in places illegal under the Geneva Convention such as hospitals. He failed at his job of protecting the Iraqi people from harm; indeed, he was causing that harm.

The US government's job is not to protect the Iraqi people; it is to protect the American people. If Iraqis have to die at the hands of the US to protect Americans from harm, then so be it, because again, it is the theoretical, legal and moral responsibility of the US government to protect the American people. No one else can or will do so.

If anything, the US is guilty of not acting in its own interests -- even in its own perceived interests -- more than any country in history. Pursuing a "moral" foreign policy has been a goal of the US, if not always the overriding one. But it has usually come back to haunt us -- Somalia and the Panama Canal come to mind. Imperial powers do not behave this way.

But my next question would be, say we are an "imperial" power. So what? Is this a bad thing? How? Frankly, I don't think so. Remember my political affiliation: socially progressive fascist imperialist. Imperialism is not bad, not by definition, though it can be used for bad things (see, e.g. the Soviet Union). Usually, imperialism has been a good thing. You want to say with a straight face that the Philippines and Cuba are better with the US gone? How 'bout Zimbabwe or Kenya with the British gone, or the Congo with the Belgians gone?

Opposition to imperialism per se is irrational. Ends matter. A government protecting its people is its first responsibility. Imperialism should be an option available to it. If the government has enough of a moral element to see to it that the colonized states also benefit from the empire, that can only be a good thing.

Monday, August 20, 2007

For all you mass transit fanatics

In the aftermath of the I-35W/St. Anthony Bridge Disaster, can anyone of the mass transit fanatics out there explain this:

As recently as July 25, Mr. Oberstar sent out a press release boasting that he had "secured more than $12 million in funding" for his state in a recent federal transportation and housing bill. But $10 million of that was dedicated to a commuter rail line$250,000 for the "Isanti Bike/Walk Trail," $200,000 to bus services in Duluth, and $150,000 for the Mesabi Academy of Kidspeace in Buhl. None of it went for bridge repair.

[...]

Even transportation dollars aren't scarce. Minnesota spends $1.6 billion a year on transportation--enough to build a new bridge over the Mississippi River every four months. But nearly $1 billion of that has been diverted from road and bridge repair to the state's light rail network that has a negligible impact on traffic congestion. Last year part of a sales tax revenue stream that is supposed to be dedicated for road and bridge construction was re-routed to mass transit. The Minnesota Department of Economic Development reports that only 2.8% of the state's commuters ride buses or rail to get to work, but these projects get up to 25% of the funding.
For all the whining we've hard about how our infrastructure is collapsing because we're spending too little money on it and much money elsewhere (usually on Iraq), this statement stands as an indictment.

We're spending enough money on our infrastructure, but this suggests that too much of it is going to expensive and stupid projects like mass transit and not to the roads that need to be maintained.

When will mass transit supporters get it? Mass transit does not work outside of densely populated places like New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Washington, DC, and the like. People in places like Indianapolis and Los Angeles have made a conscious decision that they want bigger homes with yards, not small apartments in high-rises. In such places, forget a financial standpoint, just from a commuter standpoint, mass transit is doomed to failure. Minneapolis is just the latest example. Indianapolis, where some of the dimmer bulbs are proposing a light rail system, would be another.

Los Angeles may stand as the biggest indictment of all. As green as Los Angeles County is -- or says it is -- they don't exactly back up their talk. They built a subway and no one uses it. No one uses the bus system. Heck, even the high occupancy vehicle lanes, with a requirement that any vehicle using it has two or more occupants, are usually empty. I've been on the 405 at rush hour in bumper-to-bumper traffic and the HOV lanes are empty.

Polls show consistent public support for mass transit, including in places like LA, but I would contend that those polls at best overstate the public support, and may mask an individualist agenda on the part of respondents. First, saying you support mass transit makes you feel good, progressive, forward-thinking. Second, saying you support mass transit, or even saying you will use mas transit if it were available, doesn't mean you'll actually use it. Minneapolis is (another) case in point. You won't use it. You want other people to use it, to clear the road for yourself.

Is this a bad thing? Not really. It just shows what should be obvious to anyone with more than three active brain cells -- there has never been a mode of transportation with the combination of efficacy, safety and efficiency as the automobile.

People want the ability to go where they want when they want. It is part and parcel of individual liberty. A car gives them the ability to go where they want when they want. Mass transit is peculiarly suited for not doing that. I'll never forget my bus ride in Cincinnati back in 1993. When my car broke down, I was forced to take a bus to the baseball game I had planned to attend. The trip that normally took 15 minutes by car took 90 -- and it still didn't get me to the stadium. I had to sprint from Fountain Square.

People have made a rational calculation here. They will change that calculus when something better comes along, but there is no indication that will happen anytime in the near future.

Forcing mass transit down their throats won't change that.

The study of war and "peace"

A comparison, sort of, at City Journal. Victor Davis Hanson laments that our educational institutions no longer teach the history of war. A lamentable exclusion, I would agree, for the fastest and most efficient way to learn about history is to learn about its wars, why and how they were fought, won or lost, and why war is inevitable in the human condition.

A lamentable exclusion, in my opinion, but definitely an intentional one, if Bruce Bawer's companion article "The Peace Racket" is any indication. Even in the early 1990s when I was at Ohio State, I knew to avoid any course with "peace" in the title like Emily Deschanel avoids meat and meat by-products -- for just the reasons Bawer describes. Unfortunately, it appears this particular corpse has attracted a lot of flies, who are spreading their pestilence to a dangerous degree.

(And can you tell I just got the first season of Bones on DVD?)

Quote of the Day

From Instapundit: "The debate over DDT is over. There's scientific consensus. Anyone who disagrees is a DDT denialist and a mouthpiece for Big Mosquito."

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Required reading

Mark Steyn.

Dare we to dream

The Telegraph reports that Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe will collapse in four months. To which I say, good.

Captain Ed summarizes some of the relevant history here behind Mugabe's thugocracy:

The dictatorship of Robert Mugabe could not have made more bad moves had it planned on destroying the nation. It took its productive farms from their owners -- whites from the British era of Rhodesia -- and assigned them to political cronies, who turned Zimbabwe from a net exporter of agriculture to a beggar nation. Mugabe then tried to drive the poor out of the cities, and the black market that fed most of them collapsed. Faced with rising shortages and the predictable inflation that followed, Mugabe capped prices -- and now no one can find anything on store shelves. Riots break out whenever anything arrives.

Their capital has little electricity and less potable water. Four out of five people live in abject poverty. Even if Mugabe left at this point, people will start dying in droves very soon -- those who stay, anyway. Millions have fled Zimbabwe, and millions more have packed their bags. There may be no one left to challenge Mugabe for power.

What have the African nations done about this disaster? Typically, nothing. They just held a conference where the leaders of Zimbabwe's neighbors applauded and feted Mugabe, even while talking sotto voce about the need for change. The Southern African Development Community has shown themselves to be cowards in confronting one of the most incompetent dictators on that or any other continent, apparently content to see Zimbabwe's people starve as opposed to confronting Mugabe.
You read that right. When Mugabe spoke at a recent African summit, he received thunderous applause from his neighboring governments (via the Corner).

Hence my position, which many might consider to be inhumane. Captain Ed predicts the future here, and it is one we have seen before:

If nothing changes in the immediate future, the once self-sufficient Zimbabwe will descend into the madness of tribal warfare and genocide, much like the Democratic Republic of the Congo did as Zaire. We will then hear plenty from activists, demanding interventions and UN peacekeeping missions, likely from the same neighbors who refused to lift a finger to stop Mugabe over the last several years, and even applauded him at the SADC. Famines will roll across the productive land, and Western television will be filled with advertisements begging for relief for the afflicted population.
To which he adds:

Africa, unfortunately, is a constant re-run. At some point, we're going to have to insist that Africans deal with Africa.
I agree, but I would not put it nearly so politely.

I would say to Africa, "We're sick of trying to bail you out of the disasters you create by your arrogance and corruption. You created this mess. You clean it up."

Sounds like common sense

so why don't we do it?

From Rasmussen:

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters nationwide favor cutting off federal funds for “sanctuary cities” that offer protection to illegal immigrants. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 29% are opposed. [...]

By a 71% to 16% margin, voters also favor a proposal that would require all foreign visitors to carry a universal identification card as proposed by another GOP Presidential hopeful, Rudy Giuliani. Seventy-four percent (74%) also favor the creation and funding of a central database to track all foreign visitors in the United States.

By a 56% to 31% margin, voters want the government to continue building a fence along the Mexican border.
(h/t: Instapundit)

Latest additions

to my book rotation: The Night Attila Died: Solving the Murder of Attila the Hun, by Michael A. Babcock, and The Day of the Barbarians: The Battle That Led to the Fall of the Roman Empire, by Alessandro Barbero.

The Night Attila Died claims to use philology -- basically, the archaeology of words -- to determine that Attila did not die of natural causes, but was, in fact, murdered at the behest of the Eastern Roman Emperor. I've only just started reading the book, but from what I've read so far Babcock seems to think murdering Attila the Hun was a bad thing.

To which I ask, why? He was friggin' Attila the Hun, for cryin' out loud. If you can't murder him, who the hell can you murder?

The Day of the Barbarians is one of the first books in a long time devoted solely to the Battle of Adrianople, where the Roman army was basically destroyed due to the stupidity of the Emperor Valens. The battle and the vents leading up to it contain some very uncomfortable parallels to our own situation with illegal coloniz ... er, immigration.

An indictment

of Pittsburgh Pirates GM Dave Littlefield.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

The arrogance and ignorance of global warming zealots

I couldn't help but notice Jeff Jacoby's column in the Boston Globe about the jihad of anthropogenic global warming zealots against anyone who questions their theory. And a theory is all it is, as Jacoby points out:

Anthropogenic global warming is a scientific hypothesis, not an article of religious or ideological dogma. Skepticism and doubt are entirely appropriate in the realm of science, in which truth is determined by evidence, experimentation, and observation, not by consensus or revelation. Yet when it comes to global warming, dissent is treated as heresy -- as a pernicious belief whose exponents must be shamed, shunned, or silenced.
I suppose their next step would be to try to silence the history books, assuming any of the enviro-nazis have ever bothered to read any. If they did, they would have to ask themselves some unpleasant questions.

First they would have to silence the very late Edward Gibbon, who in The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire says this:

The reindeer, that useful animal, is of a constitution that supports, and even requires, the most intense cold. He is found on the rock of Spitzberg, within ten degrees of the Pole; he seems to delight in the snows of Lapland and Siberia; but at present he cannot subsist, much less multiply, in any country south of the Baltic.
As Yale University Professor Charles Hill (quoted in Power Line) points out:

In the time of Caesar, Mr. Gibbon wrote, the reindeer was native to the forests of Germany and Poland, but in Gibbon's time the animal was nowhere to be seen in those parts. And between the Age of Caesar and the Age of Gibbon, the Medieval Warming Period and the "Little Ice Age" had taken place.
In other words, during that Medieval Warming Period, the earth had already warmed. How much? A lot.

I am continuing to read 1066, by Frank McLynn, which details personaliities and events leading up to the Battle of Hastings. I am not nearly finished with it yet, but I am very impressed with what I have read so far. Anyway, I have already found two references to what must have been this Medieval Warming Period.

First, Lynn notes in his section on Edward the Confessor that the years 1000-1300 were among the warmest in all recorded time (p. 10). The result was a rising population in both England and Normandy, and good conditions for economic growth.

But how warm was it? Funny you should ask. Lynn has a section on Harald Hardrada of Norway; in the Battle of Hastings' "Three Tenors" of Harold (Godwinson) the Saxon; William (the Conqueror) of Normandy and Harald Hardrada, hardrada played the role of "The Other Guy." In it, Lynn notes how Medieval Scandinavia benefited from the "much milder climate of the Middle Ages." Milder compared to what is the question. But Lynn, noting the extensive farming and herding of the region at that time, says that by 1000 Norway was able to feed a population of 2 million. That's a lot of people for the Middle Ages. That's a lot of people for Norway, whose population today is only 4.6 million. It suggests that Norway was warmer, perhaps much warmer, in the eleventh century than it is today.

So, the question becomes, how do those anthropogenic global warming nazis know that the earth is supposed to be only this warm, and no warmer? After reading these accounts, how can they with a straight face say global warming is caused by man?

Pouring through history books can give a lot of clues about major weather patterns and geological events that may have influenced them. How 'bout the Great Flood, noted not just the Bible but the Epic of Gilgamesh, the Metamorphoses and other accounts? The Plagues of Egypt and the Exodus, possibly caused by the eruption of the Santorini volcano (which was several times larger than the eruption at Krakatoa)? The Star of Bethlehem, perhaps a comet or meteor shower? The Typhoon Kamikaze?

Do environmentalists not read this stuff? I guess the answer is obvious.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

There are times

when I am proud to be a Roman Catholic. That's the vast majority of the time. The rituals for the Church can be beautiful. Even attending (suffering through) a mass at my church (I swear our cantor doubles as a bad Vegas lounge singer; I half expect to walk in seeing a tip jar on his piano) when I have to remind myself that I should not take out on God the drawbacks of his servants, for believe it or not I have drawbacks myself, it's very comforting for me to know that our Church go back two thousand years -- back to the Roman Empire, baby!

And then there are times when I am embarrassed to be a Catholic. This is one of them:

A Roman Catholic Bishop in the Netherlands has proposed people of all faiths refer to God as Allah to foster understanding, stoking an already heated debate on religious tolerance in a country with one million Muslims.

Bishop Tiny Muskens, from the southern diocese of Breda, told Dutch television on Monday that God did not mind what he was named and that in Indonesia, where Muskens spent eight years, priests used the word “Allah” while celebrating Mass.

“Allah is a very beautiful word for God. Shouldn’t we all say that from now on we will name God Allah? … What does God care what we call him? It is our problem.”…

A survey in the Netherlands’ biggest-selling newspaper De Telegraaf on Wednesday found 92 percent of the more than 4,000 people polled disagreed with the bishop’s view, which also drew ridicule.

“Sure. Lets call God Allah. Lets then call a church a mosque and pray five times a day. Ramadan sounds like fun,” Welmoet Koppenhol wrote in a letter to the newspaper…

A spokesman from the union of Moroccan mosques in Amsterdam said Muslims had not asked for such a gesture.
Let's be perfectly clear here. I, for one, will not submit to Islam, not for "understanding," not for anything else.

I will fight them. I will fight them legally. I will fight them rhetorically. I will fight them philosophically. And if necessary I will fight them physically. To the death, if necessary.

But I will not submit. Ever.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Be careful what you wish for

Michelle Malkin has the story on Chingo Bling, "a pro-illegal immigration, Border Patrol-mocking, Mexican-American gangsta rapper." His latest album is defiantly titled They Can't Deport Us All.

Oh, really?

His antics certainly make W hand his ilk look even more like idiots and possibly traitors for the whole "comprehensive immigration reform" plan. Why should this guy get any benefit from living in the US?

But the real idiot is Chingo. The vast majority of the American public wants illegal immigration ended. Most of them also want the illegals gone. They are sick of the crime, depressed wages, expensive government service problems and pressing "1" for English caused by illegals. Do you really want to dare them to get rid of you?

I will deal with this issue in a future "Socially Progressive Fascist Imperialist Q & A" but suffice it to say if I was in charge, when I was through with the illegals they would be begging for deportation.

Does the term "trebuchet" mean anything to you?

Another Joe Namath-Suzi Kolber moment

with Chris Matthews.

Of course, after my post about Emmanuelle Vaugier, do I have any right to complain?

It's nice

when one of your favorite Hollywood stars actually lives up to the standard you believe they hold.

Emmanuelle Vaugier first came onto my radar screen in Saw II, where she played, well, I don't know, since the movie never made her profession clear, but Vaugier played what appeared to be a skank who got by on her looks. Well, I should probably say that Vaugier tried to play a skank who got by on her looks. As I said awhile back, Vaugier is an anti-skank. Just like it's much easier for a smart person to play a dumb person than vice versa, it's much easier for a non-skank to play a skank than it is for a skank to play a non-skank, but it's very difficult, if not outright impossible, for an anti-skank to play a skank.

And when I watched Saw II at a theater in Encinitas, CA on Halloween, 2005, I noticed that Vaugier's character Addison didn't have the skank factor she was supposed to have. In fact, she didn't appear to have any. I actually ended up rooting for Addison, which never happens if the character is a skank. Alas, she ended up with both of her wrists being slashed in one of Jigsaw's traps.

Note that this is not a reflection of her acting ability at all, but of the fact that Vaugier is an anti-skank. It's like asking Amy Lee to sing country. It just doesn't fit.

Beyond that, I didn't really pay any attention to her until I started watching CSI: NY. I recognized her unusual name from Saw II. Vaugier plays the recurring character of Detective Jennifer Angell, a completely different character from Saw II. Vaugier's character on CSI: NY seems smart, driven and confident. And definitely anti-skank (not to mention gorgeous. Why don't we have cops like that in Indianapolis? Don't tell me it was the merger ...)

So I checked her out on IMDb to see if there was anything else she was in in which I didn't recognize her. Lo and behold, they had some great quotes from Vaugier:

"I've been decapitated, drowned, cut with razor sharp blades, my mother is so proud, this is way better than becoming a doctor!"
I had to laugh. She doesn't seem to take herself seriously. How many Hollywood stars actually have that virtue?

But the real kicker was this one:

"I like animals, I really do, but some animals are just meant to be eaten."
Once again, she just doesn't take herself too seriously. And after all the obnoxious political posturing of Hollywood stars, isn't it nice to see someone worthwhile talking and thinking the way the rest of us do?

So count me as a big fan of Emmanuelle Vaugier. She has lived up to my admiration. I hope she goes far.

And I definitely hope I can meet her twin somewhere. Any single Emmanuelle Vaugier twins out there? In Indianapolis? If not, it's another reason for me to move.

Monday, August 13, 2007

The latest addition

to my book rotation is 1066, by Frank McLynn.

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Picking up right where they left off

at the end of last season.

First, the quarterbacking for my Cleveland Browns -- America's Team, Defenders of Western Civilization and All That Is Good About America -- continues to be horrible sans Brady Quinn. Derek Anderson couldn't complete a pass, and Charlie Frye made so many stupid decisions that he looked like a member of the Senate Democratic caucus. I really don't want to, be may have no choice but to play Brady Quinn.

Next, America's Team -- the San Diego Chargers right now are about a sloppy as they were in the playoff disaster to New England.

Finally, John Madden continues to underwhelm as a color analysis. I've never understood what people see in this guy. He has always sucked, and he still does.

Fawltianapolis Redux

The rich get richer -- again -- in Indianapolis as Keystone at the Crossing will expand.

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Socially Progressive Fascist Imperialist Q & A -- the WMD edition

Since the first installment of the Pro Cynic Socially Progressive Fascist Imperialist Q & A was so successful, today, we are having another edition today. Once again, I will use this unique political philosophy to answer questions about today's issues. The topic for today is WMD (or lack of same) in Iraq.

Q: How can you say Saddam Hussein was a threat to the US? After all, we didn’t find any WMDs.

A: Well, that questions requires kind of a complicated answer …

Q: I don’t want a complicated answer. Just tell me, “yes” or “no.”

A: Yes.

Q: Thank y … wait! Huh?

A: We did find evidence of WMDs and WMD programs in Iraq.

Q: I don’t want “evidence.” I want the WMDs themselves.

A: Well, we did find actual WMD.

Q: OK, I have got to hear this.

A: For starters, we found several hundred chemical artillery shells remaining from the 1991 Gulf War …

Q: Those don’t count.

A: What do you mean those don’t count?

Q: They’re too old.

A: Not too old for the Baathists and al Qaida to use against US troops in Iraq as IEDs.

Q: But they didn’t work, did they?

A: No.

Q: And why not?

A: Because they were designed as artillery shells, but the terrorists only used them as roadside bombs.

Q: So?

A: So, chemical artillery shells don’t just contain a jar of mustard gas or something like that. They contain the components to the gas. Those components are mixed by the movement of the shell while the artillery shell is in flight.

Q: Your point?

A: When the terrorists used them as IEDs, they just detonated the components, but the unmixed components were not as dangerous as the gas itself.

Q: They were still old and they still didn’t work.

A: But he wasn’t supposed to have any. The terms of his peace deal after the 1991 war meant that he wasn’t supposed to have these at all.

Q: One or two chemical shells don’t count.

A: We found hundreds of them.

Q: Then how come we didn’t hear about it?

A: Because we didn’t find them in one big, sexy stockpile of chemical artillery shells.

Q: I can’t believe you just called piles of WMD “sexy.”

A: Well, they’re not “sexy” in a Emmanuelle Vaugier sort of way, but make ‘em up a bit and they could probably give Rosie O’Donnell a run for her money.

Q: They still don’t count. We didn’t find any new ones.

A: But we found the programs for making new ones.

Q: Huh?

A: Saddam had the scientists with the expertise for making these weapons.

Q: So?

A: And we found documents containing directions on how to make chemical and biological weapons.

Q: Again, so?

A: And we found many of the materials for making them.

Q: But you didn’t find them?

A: He could have started making them the minute the UN sanctions were lifted.

Q: Ahem! But you didn’t find them?

A: We found centrifuges, yellowcake …

Q: Oh, don’t get started on the yellowcake. He didn’t get yellowcake from Nigeria.

A: What? Did you just get home from a date with Joe Wilson? Where did he take you? The Mint Tea Room?

Q: Come on!

A: Besides, Saddam already had yellowcake.

Q: Did not.

A: Did too.

Q: Did not!

A: Did, too! And he had pesticides.

Q: Big deal. Many of us have pesticides.

A: But tens of thousands of gallons of them?

Q: Ever heard of “farmers?”

A: In heavily-guarded, camouflaged bunkers?

Q: That doesn’t mean anything.

A: Pesticides are precursors for many chemical weapons agents, like nerve gas and mustard-type gases. They can be used to make WMD.

Q: So?

A: So, what do you think he was doing by keeping all this pesticide in hidden, heavily guarded bunkers?

Q: Well, they weren’t chemical weapons.

A: Either they were going to be used to make chemical weapons, or he had a very big bug problem.

Q: Do you mean a big problem with bugs or a problem with big bugs?

A: Both.

Q: Well, it could have been a big problem with big bugs, I guess.

A: Is there a point to this?

Q: Well, since they obviously were not chemical weapons, Saddam must have been very worried about bugs.

A: Now, what could worry someone so much about bugs that they keep tens of thousands of gallons of pesticide?

Q: You know, they have scorpions in Iraq.

A: So what? We have scorpions here, most prominently in the city-county council …

Q: But we don’t have yellow scorpions. Those are the real poisonous ones.

A: So, you step on them and they’re dead. That’s what our troops in Iraq do to them.

Q: But the yellow scorpions can be really crafty.

A: Oh, really? How?

Q: Some of them disguise themselves as lobsters and attack anyone who tries to eat them.

A: They attack anyone who tries to eat them anyway. That’s kinda common among these things.

Q: But disguising themselves as lobsters?

A: I didn’t know that lobsters were such a big staple in Iraq. Besides, where are you hearing that yellow scorpions are disguising themselves as lobsters?

Q: I think that “Scott Thomas” guy said so in the New Republic

A: That explains a lot.

Q: And there are a lot of scorpions in Iraq.

A: Do you mean all the scorpions, or just the yellow ones?

Q: Both.

A: Wait a minute! What difference does it make? We’re talking about scorpions!!!

Q: Maybe they were planning a revolt.

A: A revolt?

Q: Yes.

A: The scorpions n Iraq were planning a revolt?

Q: Maybe.

A: Saddam Hussein was scared of the scorpions in Iraq planning a revolt?

Q: Well, since those pesticides obviously weren’t chemical weapons, that must be the explanation.

A: And how exactly would these scorpions carry out this revolt?

Q: They would infiltrate restaurants and fisheries disguised as lobsters.

A: You don’t think people would notice these “lobsters” converging on the restaurants?

Q: They would just think it was some kind of PETA protest.

A: You actually think this?

Q: Since those pesticides couldn’t possibly be chemical weapons, that’s the only explanation.

A: Saddam feared scorpions would try to take over Iraq?

Q: Yup. And, I guess, in a way they did.

A: Oh, for crying out loud … but I will say this.

Q: What?

A: Living in a country ruled by scorpions is infinitely preferable to living in a country ruled by Islamists.
That's all the time we have for today. Feel free to send in your questions for the next edition of the Pro Cynic Socially Progressive Fascist Imperialist Q & A. Once again, this feature will run, roughly, whenever I feel like it.

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Socially Progressive Fascist Imperialist Q & A

Today we are beginning a new feature, which will be called the Pro Cynic Socially Progressive Fascist Imperialist Q & A. This is where I will use this unique political philosophy to answer questions about today's issues. Today's question is about foreign policy.

Q: What would you do about the situation in Iraq?

A: Iraq is a continuing problem for the US. I would invade and annex it.

Q. Didn't we already invade them?

A: Yes. So, what's your point?

Q: But don't we still have troops there?

A: Yes.

Q: Well, we can't invade them again.

A: Sure we can.

Q: How so?

A: We didn't invade them with enough troops the first time because Donald Rumsfeld was an idiot and wanted war on the cheap. You can't do that. Then George W. decided to fight only a politically correct war. As if that's possible. So we're in a mess as a result. We need to practice a total war in Iraq.

Q: So you want to go Roman on them?

A: No. The Romans invaded Iraq and lost. Badly. Called the Battle of Carrhae. The Romans never did seem to grasp this whole cavalry and horse archer thing. That problem was solved in World War II, though someone forgot to tell Poland that.

Q: Then how would you do it?

A: First, seal off the borders with Iran and Syria. Any Qutb or Pasdaran troops crossing will be shot and tortured, not necessarily in that order. Others trying to cross from either country will just be shot.

Q: That's kinda inhumane, isn't it.

A: Less so than these guys supplying arms to terrorists in Iraq who kill our troops.

Q: Then what would you do about the internal issues in Iraq? Don't the Sunnis and the Shiites want to kill each other?

A: Yes, they do.

Q: So, what do you plan to do about it?

A: Nothing.

Q: Nothing? Wasn't humanitarianism one of the reasons we invaded?

A: Well, that was one of the reasons for the people who did the invading, but it wasn't mine. Our job, both legally and morally, is not to protect the Iraqi people; it is to protect the American people.

Q: And invading Iraq accomplished this?

A: Yes.

Q: How?

A: Well, maybe I missed something recent, but I don't see Saddam Hussein threatening to attack us or using his terrorist proxies to attack us or developing WMD anymore. In fact, last I checked, Saddam Hussein was dead, but maybe they could have brought him back to life, kinda like Spock in Star Trek III

Q: But don't we have an obligation to help them rebuild?

A: No.

Q: Why not?

A: Because all they want to do is kill each other. Except for the Kurds. The Kurds are cool. If we're going to give them a chance at democracy, and they choose to kill each other, that's not our fault.

Q: Isn't that an argument for our withdrawing?

A: No

Q: No? Why not?

A: If they would rather fight than take care of Iraq, then we should turn lemons into lemonade, so to speak. We should take care of Iraq ourselves. And if we're going to do that, then we might as well just annex the place. Their killing each other makes that easier.

Q: Why would we want to do that?

A: They have oil.

Q: But it's their oil.

A: Then let them invade their own country. We invaded it first. We worked hard at it. You think it's easy invading a country with the New York Times trying to turn it into Vietnam and turning your military secrets over to the enemy like Ultra? Plus, we gave them a chance to run things and they screwed it up, kinda like Mexico and the old Southwest.

Q: But they're new at democracy. They are doing the best they can.

A: And they are succeeding only in making Bob Taft look like Rudy Giuliani. Come to think of it, Taft might be looking for a job right about now.

Q: But we gave Germany and South Korea a chance and look how they turned out?

A: Yes, they freeloaded off of our defense for fifty years and now they hate us and blame us for every ill from terrorism to the bird flu.

Q: But they could still do so if we annexed them.

A: They could, but we would have more options for dealing with it.

Q: How so?

A: Ever heard of "Kent State?"
That's all the time we have for today. Feel free to send in your questions for the next edition of the Pro Cynic Socially Progressive Fascist Imperialist Q & A. This feature will run, roughly, whenever I feel like it.

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

The difference between a liberal and a leftist

Power Line makes an excellent distinction, using the example of Iraq:

[F]ailure to succeed at war reduces a nation's ability to exert influence and emboldens a nation's enemies and potential enemies. This may not be a rationale for continuing to fight a lost cause. However, recent developments in Iraq strongly suggest that the cause there is not lost.

If the Democrats push for defeat in Iraq under these circumstances, it would be difficult not to conclude that either (a) they would like to see the U.S. unable to exert influence in the world or (b) they have no understanding of how the world works. Option (a) provides a good working definition of an American leftist; option (b) of an American liberal.

It's too bad

I don't talk local and state politics, because there is a lot happening around here right now.

Latest addiction

Lord of the Rings, Battle for Middle Earth II: the Rise of the Witch-king.

Sunday, August 05, 2007

Heh

I wonder if anyone else will pick up on the Fawlty Towers analogy after reading this in the Indianapolis Star.

(h/t: Indy Undercover)

Come and get them!

This weekend, I'm definitely enjoying my new DVD, 300, though they advertised deleted scenes and I have yet to find any.

Friday, August 03, 2007

More 35W

While I was away in Pittsburgh watching my Pirates actually win a game -- for once -- information has been coming in about the 35W bridge disaster in Minneapolis in driblets.

First, the bridge was rated "structurally deficient" by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT). That's not a good thing, but not nearly as bad as it sounds. It does not mean anywhere close to "a collapse without warning is a strong possibility." It basically puts the bridge on a watch list for maintenance.

Captain's Quarters links to a Star-Tribune article with more information:

Structural deficiencies in the Interstate 35W bridge that collapsed Wednesday were so serious that the Minnesota Department of Transportation last winter considered bolting steel plates to its supports to prevent cracking in fatigued metal, according to documents and interviews with agency officials.
The department went so far as to ask contractors for advice on the best way to approach such a task, which could have been opened for bids later this year.

MnDOT considered the steel plating at the recommendation of consulting engineers who told the agency that there were two ways to keep the bridge safe: Make repairs throughout the 40-year-old steel arched bridge or inspect it closely enough to find flaws that might become cracks and then bolt the steel plating only on those sections.

Fears about bridge safety fueled emotional debate within the agency, according to a construction industry source. But on the I-35W bridge, transportation officials opted against making the repairs.

Officials were concerned that drilling thousands of tiny bolt holes would weaken the bridge. Instead, MnDOT launched an inspection that was interrupted this summer by unrelated work on the bridge's concrete driving surface.

"We chose the inspection route. In May we began inspections," Dan Dorgan, the state's top bridge engineer, said. "We thought we had done all we could, but obviously something went terribly wrong."

Dorgan said there was enough money in the agency's budget to pay for construction work on the underside of the bridge. But he and Gov. Tim Pawlenty acknowledged that transportation officials will face tough questions about the state's upkeep of the bridge, which has had known deficiencies since 1990.

"We will absolutely get to the bottom of this," Pawlenty said. "There were a lot of decisions made, a lot of judgment calls made, and they're all going to have to be critically reviewed."

Pawlenty said an independent consultant will be hired to scrutinize MnDOT inspection practices meant to safeguard the state's 13,026 bridges. In the case of the I-35W bridge, MnDOT inspections convinced officials that the bridge wouldn't need to be replaced or overhauled until 2020, the governor said.
Captain Ed has this reaction:

[I]t looks like the engineers at MnDOT simply decided that the bridge did not appear to have sufficient problems for immediate intervention.

That was not a question of money. MnDOT officials, according to the Strib, acknowledged that they had the money in the budget to pay for the suggested repairs. In fact, MnDOT was the agency that made the determination that the I-35W bridge would not need an overhaul or replacement until 2020. Those recommendations were forwarded to the state government, which didn't have any reason to reject the evaluations supplied by the MnDOT engineers.

This could explain why Pawlenty has decided to outsource the new bridge inspections. He announced yesterday that all Minnesota bridges would undergo an extra and immediate round of inspections. At the same time, he also announced that the state had hired a consultant firm to review the inspection process and to conduct inspections themselves.

Some still insist that it must have been all about money, but MnDOT itself insists that was not the issue. They did not want to risk the bridge structure by drilling the necessary holes in the girders that would have allowed them to rivet repair plates in place. They felt the situation was not critical and that the repair could have made the structure even more unstable.

It doesn't appear that money or neglect played a part in this collapse. It looks instead that MnDOT either didn't evaluate the bridge properly, or that the fatigue it noted didn't have anything to do with the collapse.
This sounds about right. Doing structural work on a object can temporarily weaken it. In the 35W's case, the patches might have made the bridge more stable, but the drilling of the holes for the patches could have permanently weakened the metal. It was a tradeoff, whose resolution was a judgment call by MnDOT.

Was it a bad call? We don't know. It may have been. But the collapse may have been due to something completely different, even something no one had thought of, like the mechanical resonance of Tacoma Narrows. This incident is not like your typical terrorist attack, with patterns of behavior and history to analyze. We simply don't have enough information to determine right now what happened tot he 35W.

And until we do, I would caution against a rush to judgment.

I expected more

from Gwen Stefani.

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Shocked

I don't know that there are words to describe the shock felt by those of US across the country at the collapse of the I-35W bridge over the Mississippi in Minneapolis. I've actually traveled over this bridge before -- in 1997 when I saw my Ohio State Buckeyes play the Golden Gophers. We drove around for a while, taking in the Minnesota campus before going to the Metrodome for the game. AS one might expect, Power Line, Captain's Quarters and, lastly, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune have far more. I do have an engineering streak in me, so I have some thoughts of my own.

First, I have to echo John Hinderaker at Power Line:

This is the kind of disaster that just doesn't happen in the United States--a bridge spontaneously collapsing, apparently, into a river. It is hard to convey to those who don't live here the astonishment of this sort of catastrophe happening on our most traveled highway.
This is indeed true as far as it goes. But bridge disasters are not unknown in the US. A few of them have even been mentioned tonight in the Fox News coverage.

One involved one of my favorite bridges, the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. Part of the eastern span, which consists of double-decker truss and cantilever sections -- I especially like the cantilever span, which is unfortunately due to be replaced in the near future -- collapsed, the upper deck collapsing on the lower deck, during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The bridge itself did not collapse. The cause of this incident was fairly obvious. The bridge was repaired and in operation a month later, and was later retrofitted to better resist earthquakes.

Another, also mentioned tonight, involved the Sunshine Skyway Bridge, which spans Tampa Bay. The original bridge was a cantilever span, with a copy later built next to it to make a twin span, with one for northbound traffic and the other for southbound traffic. A large part of the southbound bridge collapsed on May 9, 1980, after the freighter Summit Venture collided with a support column during a storm. We actually drove on the bridge a few years later when we vacationed in Florida. Southbound traffic now shared the remaining northbound span with northbound traffic. The southbound bridge still stood ... but ended in mid-air over Tampa Bay. Something of a disquieting scene. Again, the cause of the collapse was rather obvious, and the bridge was rebuilt.

Not mentioned tonight, but conceivably more relevant, was the collapse of Washington state's Tacoma Narrows Bridge on November 7, 1940. Tacoma Narrows was a suspension bridge, and its collapse was one for the ages, still studied by engineers today. The bridge had suffered from wind-induced vibrations called mechanical resonance, which caused the bridge to twist in ways not previously seen. She became (in)famous for this phenomenon, and was referred to locally as "Galloping Gertie," but everyone was concerned about her structural integrity. She eventually collapsed due to extreme mechanical resonance. The collapse was caught on video and became an engineering classic still reviewed today. The bridge was rebuilt, taking into account the new lessons taught the effects of wind on such bridges.

Is any of this relevant to today's disaster? We won't know for some time. One guests on Fox News discussed "scouring," in which the water of the river undermines the soil holding up the bridge supports. Another discussed how this was an arched span, which are, he says, economical but somewhat weak. That's news to me. I thought arches were among the strongest formations known. The arches the Romans used seem to have held up all right.

Tonight's interviews with witnesses to the collapse have reported the following:

· jackhammering on the bridge -- the bridge was partially closed for maintenance work.
· a possible small explosion -- DHS says there is "no indication" of terrorist involvement, but they are monitoring the situation, a very proper response, much better than their previous ones.
· cars on the bridge at a standstill -- the bridge was down to one lane and it was rush-hour.
· a rumbling sound before the bridge collapsed
Possible puzzle pieces, all, but just speculation at this time.

One final point: it appears that the actions of the first responders in the Twin Cities and even civilians on the streets has been simply amazing. Moments like this will often bring out the best in America, which is what makes this such a special country.