Mid-day tanks in Georgia

The Soviet ... er, Russian invasion of Georgia is not getting much attention in the American media. But it should. It represents (yet) a(nother) catastrophic failure for the US intelligence establishment, and a potential unmitigated strategic disaster.

Belmont Club gives the background to this particular affair (here and here). For the geographically challenged, here is a map of the region from Belmont Club:

Basically, Georgia is a former Soviet republic set in the Caucasus Mountains between the Black and Caspian Seas, on the southern border of Russia. They have struggled a bit, but they have made strides toward a Western style democracy, with a president in Mikheil Saakashvili who was actually duly elected in a real, actual election and not one of those Hugo Chavez or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Jimmy Carter-endorsed things. Saakashvili has been a friend to the United States, even sending 2,000 troops to help in Iraq. And Georgia, which by some definitions is in Europe, has been angling unsuccessfully for membership in NATO. Marc Champion goes into some of Saakashvili's history.

The Russian Federation has not been happy when the former Soviet republics or Warsaw Pact members look to the west. The inclusion of the Baltic republics, Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Romania in the Western alliance in some form or another has been a sore point in Russo-US relations. What seems to have been lost on the Russians has been that those countries have looked to the West out of fear of a resurgent (at least militarily) Russia. Georgia was looking to NATO likely for the same reason.

That is the strategic background; now for the local background. The Soviets had a habit of dividing up individual nationalities so they would have trouble organizing opposition to the government. That is what happened to Ossetia. There is a North Ossetia, which is in Russia, and a South Ossetia, which is in Georgia. Whether the Ossetians like the Russians or not is anybody's guess, but they sure don't like the Georgians. The South Ossetians, probably at the behest of the Russians, have been pushing for independence from Georgia and possibly reunification with North Ossetia within Russia. The dispute got so bad that the Russians "had" to send "peacekeepers" into South Ossetia.

The story goes that these Russian "peacekeepers" fired at Georgian troops, prompting Saakashvili to deploy his US-trained military to retake the renegade province once and for all. Except this was apparently a Russian trap. The Russians had massed forces on the Georgian border, evidently without notice by our stellar intelligence agencies. They used the actions by Georgian troops as a pretext for an invasion, of not just South Ossetia but of Georgia proper.

Belmont Club:

Moscow’s support for South Ossetian separatism, in part a reaction to Georgia’s efforts to get closer to the West potentially puts Russia and NATO on a collision course. After taking power, Georgian President Mikaheil Saakashvili sought NATO membership and other ties with the West. Russia, already humiliated by the loss of many of its former satellites, decided to strike back at Georgia after Kosovo declared independence from Serbia. The IHT reported that

Tensions escalated when Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in February and was subsequently recognized by several Western countries. Russia, an ally of Serbia, had vowed to increase its support for Abkhazia and South Ossetia — a poor, mountainous territory between Georgia and Russia’s southern border — in retaliation.

The geopolitical shadows lengthened after President Saakashvili accused Russia of bombing several Georgian villages while Moscow claimed Georgian forces had killed at least 3 Russian peacekeepers who were earlier stationed in the area to supervise a ceasefire. [...]

Large scale ground clashes between the two countries will be impeded by the towering Caucasus mountains, which form a barrier between southern Russia and Georgia. The Caucasian region is among the most volatile areas on earth, populated by Abkhaz, Circassians, Dagestanis, Chechens, Ingushetians — and Russians among others.

Though Saakashvili hoped for a repeat of the Winter War of 1940, when Joseph Stalin's Red Army invaded Finland and were fought to an embarrasing stalemate, The Georgian army is getting crushed by the far more numerous Russians, which leads me to suspect that this was basically a trap set up by Vladimir Putin.

Power Line published a map from StratFor showing the relative deployments of Russian forces:


If you look at the StratFor map as well as the one above from Belmont Club, you will see that Georgia is largely a valley, with the Black Sea at the west end and the capital of Tblisi at the east end. Gori is smack dab in the middle. Gori has also, unfortunately, just been captured by the Russians, cutting Georgia in two.

You'll not that Gori is nowhere near South Ossetia, nor are the Black Sea ports that have also fallen under Russian attack. This suggest that Russia is now attacking Georgia proper with the goal of removing the duly-elected Saakashvili from power, to be replaced by a pro-Russian puppet. Alongside is speculation that Russia is going for the outright destruction of the Georgian military.

So, why is this a bad thing? Oh, where to begin:

1. We have a strongly pro-US government falling to an outright Russian invasion not seen since Poland in 1939. But the US response will apparently be more akin to Czechoslovakia in 1938 -- that is, nothing. At least nothing militarily, which is about all that might work at this point. Since Russia decided to attack just after we pulled out about 1,000 American military advisors, I'm guessing that any US military presence would be a deterrent. We're kicking around the idea of kicking the Russians out of the G-8 but the Europeans might not be on bard with that because ...

2. Russia controls almost all of Western Europe's supplies of oil and natural gas. They also control most of the oil and natural gas supplies of the former Soviet republics. Much to Putin's chagrin, the Georgians helped build the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to take Caspian Sea oil across Georgian territory for transit to a Turkish Mediterranean port. Power Line discusses the background of the pipeline and shows its location:


None of it goes anywhere near South Ossetia:


But that hasn't stopped the Russians from attacking the pipeline with missiles. If Russia gains control of Georgia, it gains a chokehold over supplies of oil and natural gas from central Asia. That means another spike in oil prices.

3. And if we don't support an ally here, one who has helped support us during unpopular causes, what does that say to our allies in Poland, Ukraine, the Baltics? Supposedly, Russia has already threatened them to keep their mouths shut about Georgia.

4. The timing on this could not be worse from the US standpoint. Georgia had deployed 2,000 troops to Iraq, but they had to be airlifted out to deal with this crisis. Meanwhile, Georgia is an alternate transit point for US troops and supplies going to Afghanistan. Remember, Afghanistan is landlocked. We need the help of allies in the region to rotate and supply our troops there. Right now, we use the Georgian route and Pakistan. However, Pakistan may not be viable much linger, as Pervez Musharraf is facing impeachment and the rogue Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) which helped create the Taliban, is making noise about installing an Islamist/pro-al Qaida regime.

5. Furthermore, we are getting closer and closer to a denouement with Iran over its nuclear program. Georgia is close to Iran and could serve as a staging area for US forces. It may need to serve as one anyway; if Saakasvili survives he may need a US presence to keep the Russians out. Conversely, a pro-Russian Georgia makes it easier for Russia to transport supplies into Iran. Allegedly, Iran is worried about the Georgian crisis, but their concern is that Russia either won't win or will have to give up so much to do so that they will no longer be able to protect Iran at the UN.

The timing is so bad for the US vis-a-vis Islamists in Pakistan and Iran that I wonder if there was some coordination involved, or simply Russia exploiting an opportunity to devastating effect for the US.

In the meantime, we seem to be calling the Russian aggression for what it is, but in the action department George W. Bush, as he has been doing of late, is looking like Jimmy Carter.

(crossposted at Pro Cynic and Circle City Pundit)