Some military news that might have come in below your radar, in some cases literally:
1. Missile defense in the Persain Gulf?
The UAE (United Arab Emirates) wants to buy $7 billion worth of American THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) anti-missile systems to protect itself against the growing arsenal of Iranian ballistic missiles. The UAE is a confederation of small Arab states at the southern end of the Persian Gulf. With a population of only 5.5 million, and large oil and gas deposits, the emirates have a per-capita income of $43,000. Thus the UAE has a lot to defend, and an increasingly belligerent neighbor just across the Gulf. The UAE controls one side the entrance to the Gulf (the Straits of Hormuz). Iran is on the other end, and both nations dispute ownership of some islands in the middle.
The U.S. has agreed to the sale, even though the U.S. Army just formed the first of four THAD anti-ballistic missile (ABM) batteries earlier this year. This unit will be ready for combat in two years, using the THAAD missile. The other three batteries will be in service within five years. Twenty months ago, there was a successful test of THAAD (a SCUD type target was destroyed in flight) using a crew of soldiers for the first time, and not manufacturer technicians, to operate the system.
Each THAAD battery will have 24 missiles, three launchers and a fire control communications system. This will include an X-Band radar. The gear for each battery will cost $310 million. The 18 foot long THAAD missiles weigh 1,400 pounds. This is about the same size as the Patriot anti-aircraft missile, but twice the weight of the anti-missile version of the Patriot. The range of THAAD is 200 kilometers, max altitude is 150 kilometers, and it is intended for short (like SCUD) or medium range (up to 2,000 kilometer) range ballistic missiles. This is what Iran has a lot of.
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The UAE has already bought Patriot anti-missile and anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as dozens of new fighter interceptors, and tens of billions of dollars of new gear for their army and navy. The UAE armed forces has 60,000 troops, and they are armed to the teeth.
I'm never quite comfortable selling ur most advanced weapons to places like the UAE, becasue there is a possiibility they may wind up in the hands of the bad guys. Remember that Iran still has US-made F-14's from the Shah's regime, and Israel tried to sell US military technology to China.
Worse, this sale suggests a policy of containment of a nuclear-armed Iran, not a destruction of said program, which is preferable.
2.
That said:Over the past couple of years, there has been plenty of speculation about Iran acquiring the S-300 air defense system from Russia, or through a third party. So far, none of those reports--including some from supposedly "authoritative" sources--have panned out.
That's an important caveat, since the story is making the rounds (again). The latest version comes from "Necenzurirano," a web magazine published in Croatia. According to the Necenzurirano account--which was republished by the Jerusalem Post--Zagreb has agreed to sell S-300 equipment to Iran. Croatia acquired at least one SA-30/S-300 battery from Moscow more than a decade ago, but the system was never placed in operational service.
The Croat publication also reports that a Libyan freighter has arrived in the port city of Kraljevica, in preparation for the shipment to Iran. Israeli military sources could not confirm the account.
While some analysts claim that Tehran has already acquired the S-300, those claims have never been verified. While Iran is believed to be interested in the system, negotiations aimed at concluding a purchase have never been finalized. In years past, Iranian officials reportedly balked at the system's high price ($300 million per battery). But, with the recent spike in oil revenues (and the threat of a U.S. or Israeli strike against its nuclear facilities), Tehran may consider the system more affordable.
Buying used equipment from Croatia would be even cheaper, and provide a possible "bridge" until Iran could acquire new missiles and radar from Russia. Zagreb's S-300 battery is believed to be in good condition, having been maintained in operational storage since the mid-1990s.
The Croat military never explained why the system wasn't deployed, but the U.S. is believed to have pressured Zagreb to keep the S-300 out of service. Croatia's decision was also influenced by the break-up of the former Yugoslavia, and a diminished air threat from arch-foe Serbia.
However, U.S. influence in Croatia is limited, and Tehran has worked tirelessly to build ties with the Zagreb regime. During the Balkans conflict of the 1990s, Iranian "aid" flights routinely landed at the Zagreb airport, providing a convenient conduit for funneling arms to Muslim fighters in neighboring Bosnia. Contacts established years ago provided a foundation for the reported S-300 deal.
Ah, the breakup of the former Yugoslavia. The gift that keeps on giving.
As much as I bash the Dems for an inept foreign policy that makes no effort to protect US interests, this particular issue falls square at the feet of George H.W. Bush, who refused to support Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina against the murderous Milosevic regime in Serbia. This gave the Middle East mullahs an opening to expand their influence, which they have been using. There has been an expansion of Wahhabist madrassas in Bosnia, funded by the Saudis who used the goodwill they gained by supporting the Bosnian Muslims to now attempt to subvert the tolerant Balkan form of Islam.
As I said in 1992, this could have been all but solved by parking the battleship
New Jersey off Dubrovnik.
3.
Russian bombers in Venezuela:Russia finally staged a much-anticipated bomber flight along our eastern seaboard on Wednesday. A pair of TU-160 Blackjacks flew across the North Atlantic, then paralleled the Canadian and U.S. coastlines before heading across the Caribbean, and landing in Venezuela.
It marked the first time that Russian bombers have operated in the Western Hemisphere since the Cold War. During that era, propeller-driven TU-95 "Bears" made occasional deployments to Cuba, following roughly the same route used by the Blackjacks. The TU-160 is a jet-powered strategic bomber, slightly larger--and faster--than the U.S. Air Force B-1 Lancer. Moscow has a total of 16 Blackjacks in its inventory.
As you might expect, Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez was tickled pink by the deployment, part of expanding ties between his country and Russia. [...]
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don't be surprised if the S-300 SAM system and Kilo-class subs show up in Venezuela somewhere down the road.
Over the near term, the Russian Navy will show the flag in the Caribbean later this fall. Earlier this week, Moscow announced that a naval squadron, headed by the Kirov-class cruiser Peter the Great, will visit Venezuela in November, part of a planned joint exercise with Venezuelan forces.
As a military show-of-force, the bomber deployment and the scheduled naval exercise are modest affairs--certainly nothing that compares with an U.S. carrier group showing up in your neighborhood, or the movement of entire bomber squadrons to Great Britain and Diego Garcia during Allied Force or the Gulf Wars.
But the Russian moves served their purpose--providing a tit-for-tat response to recent American naval missions in the Black Sea (a result of Moscow's invasion of Georgia), and our planned deployment of ballistic missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic. Sending nuclear-capable bombers and a naval squadron to our hemisphere is a reminder that Russia remains a military power, even if its power projection capabilities are a shadow of what they once were. As Douglas Barrie of Aviation Week reminds us, the two bombers now in Venezuela represent 1/8 of Russia's TU-160 inventory.
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Hugo Chavez practically telegraphed the bomber deployment with recent comments on his television show. Now, if Mr. Chavez is to be believed, he will receive an orientation flight in a Blackjack during their deployment. We don't envy the Russian IP with the misfortune of having Chavez along for the ride.
We should also note that the flight was not a surprise to U.S. and NATO air defense forces. Thanks to intelligence cueing, our fighters were literally waiting for the TU-160s, escorting them across the North Atlantic and along our east coast.
Don't forget that the Fat Paratrooper just tossed out the US ambassador. Well, told him he wouldn't be returning to Caracas from his visit to DC.
There is a part of me that wonders if this is not a ploy by Chavez to bump up the price of oil.
On the other hand, stories like
this make you wonder about the capabilities of their pilots.
4. Finally,
a bit of a mystery:The Japanese destroyer JMSDF Atago (DDG 177) spotted a periscope over the weekend, and with active sonar found itself a submarine. What is very interesting is where the submarine was spotted.
The submarine was detected at 6:56 a.m. south of the Bungo Strait, 7 km inside the territorial sea line and some 60 km southwest of Cape Ashizuri in Kochi Prefecture.
The nationality of the submarine was unknown, but the defense officials said it likely did not belong to the United States, Japan's closest security ally.
"It was very regrettable," Defense Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said. "We need to do our utmost tracking down the submarine and getting to the bottom of the incident."
Hayashi suggested he did not consider the incident serious enough to order the Maritime Self-Defense Force to take maritime security operations, an operation the MSDF has taken only twice in the postwar era.
Galrahn comments:
The article rules out a US Navy submarine, which only leaves 4 possible options: South Korea, North Korea, Russia, or China. It will be interesting if the media keeps asking who the submarine belongs to. If it was the port of Long Beach, the US media would keep asking until an answer was given.
We all know which country the submarine belongs to, but the question is which submarine class was able to get so close undetected?
As a World War II buff, it's nice to see old names like
Atago still in service in the Japanese navy, and in this case investigating a violation of Japan's territorial integrity.